BioOracle
FDA Tracker
Evidence-Based Analysis
FDA Approval Likelihood
Real-time probability scores synthesized from ClinicalTrials.gov, OpenFDA adverse event data, and SEC regulatory disclosures.
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Scoring Methodology
Our rules-based engine combines three independent data streams into a single probability score.
Phase Score
Historical FDA approval rates by clinical phase. Phase 1 (8%), Phase 2 (27%), Phase 3 (65%). Adjusted for trial status and completion.
Base + Status Modifier
Safety Score
Comparison of adverse event profile against GLP-1 class baseline from OpenFDA FAERS data. Serious AE elevation is penalized.
-0.30 to +0.05 range
Disclosure Score
NLP sentiment analysis of SEC 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K filings for regulatory language and risk factor changes.
Sentiment Quartiles
ClinicalTrials.gov API v2
OpenFDA FAERS
SEC EDGAR